I just came across this paper today. It details some rather dramatic findings that indicate energy efficiency improvements are already more substantial, especially since 2010, and that further improvements are more achievable than many modelers have assumed. It also shows more rapid than expected adoption of renewables. There are a number of other encouraging developments described in this paper. I am wondering about the extent to which these findings have been taken into account in En-ROADS, or if there are strong reasons to doubt or dispute these claims.
I would greatly appreciate comments by others who are able to evaluate these arguments.
I think many are coming across similar articles and asking the same question - so you are not alone in asking this question. I received a response from En-Roads yesterday and they wrote back to me (and others I believe) ..."[we] are currently working on developing an in-depth resource about our BAU scenario and hope to have it published soon."
I would be interested in what others are reading also!