En-ROADS does not include explicit modeling of climate “tipping points,” but you can explore some of them for yourself by changing the Assumptions. Because of the large range of uncertainty surrounding the timing of these kinds of events, we have chosen not to include tipping points in the baseline scenario. 


To simulate a large-scale methane release “tipping point,” go to Assumptions > “Climate system sensitivities” > “Effect of temperature on methane emissions from permafrost and clathrates.”


The difficulty in modeling this phenomenon does not mean we should lower our concern about these risks. As a facilitator, you can emphasize that the wide range of risks associated with climate change are not comprehensively captured in En-ROADS, since the tool is designed to focus on the leverage that might come from taking action. With the uncertainty in the timing of crossing tipping points, it is essential to minimize temperature change so we can minimize the risk of experiencing the very worst effects of climate change.