As described in the C-ROADS Reference Guide, we conducted a full suite of tests to build our confidence in the simulation, guided by section 21.4 in Business Dynamics by John Sterman.
Given the existence of many other climate models, one of the most important tests was the comparison of C-ROADS output to the output of disaggregated simulations from the SRES database (e.g., MAGICC) given a range of emissions input scenarios. As part of the ongoing work to keep C-ROADS updated comparison tests have been run against the RCP and SSP scenario sets from the IPCC.
C-ROADS underwent a scientific review, which concluded, in part:
C-ROADS … is a timely simulation tool that provides policymakers and policy analysts … a better understanding and intuitive feel for the broad brush, long term consequences of climate change given various GHG reduction strategies. This very rapid simulation model reproduces the response properties of state-of-the-art three dimensional climate models very well – well within the uncertainties of the high resolution models – and with sufficient precision to provide useful information for its intended audience. Given the model’s capabilities and its close alignment with a range of scenarios published in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC we support its widespread use among a broad range of users and recommend that it be considered as an official United Nations tool.
The full results of the scientific review are available here.
Members of the committee were:
Dr. Robert Watson, Review Chair, the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia (UK)
Mr. Eric Beinhocker, McKinsey Global Institute (UK)
Dr. Bert de Vries, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Netherlands)
Dr. Klaus Hasselmann, Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie (Germany)
Dr. David Lane, London School of Economics & Political Science (UK)
Dr. Jorgen Randers, Norwegian School of Management (BI) (Norway)
Dr. Stephen Schneider, Stanford University (US)
Note – The review panel’s endorsement of C-ROADS represents the views of the members of the review panel in their individual capacity and does not necessarily imply any endorsement by the organizations with which they are affiliated.
Members of our team along with our partners have also published these papers:
1. Sterman, J. D., Fiddaman, T., Franck, T., Jones, A., McCauley, S., Rice, P., … Siegel, L. (2013). Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations. Environmental Modelling and Software, 44, 122–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.06.004
2. Sterman, J., Fiddaman, T., Franck, T., Jones, A., Mccauley, S., Rice, P., … Siegel, L. (2012). Climate interactive: The C-ROADS climate policy model. System Dynamics Review, 28(3), 295–305. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1474